Oil Prices

High gas prices are providing plenty of material for the media. They’re trying to whip everyone in to a panic. And, although GDP has not gone negative for even a single quarter, the media is convinced we’re in a recession. (The definition of a recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP.)

But, back to gas prices. We shouldn't blame anyone but ourselves. Our rampant consumption of gasoline, plastic products, and other things made from oil, is finally catching up to us.

Combine that with the fact the NIMBYs have prevented any new refineries in this country in over 30 years, and we've become prisoners to the major oil producing countries.

U.S. refineries are running at near 100% capacity, but we've imported 1.2 million barrels of refined gasoline a day so far this month to meet demand. This comprises approx 10% of our daily consumption. Imported refined gasoline costs much more because of transport cost. As imported gasoline increases, overall cost at the pump goes up.

Unless we increase refinery capacity in this country, we don't have a way to deal with increased oil production.

So, when Congress starts talking about expanding where companies can drill, they need to also talk about increasing refinery capacity, or it's all just lip service.

This all said, the answer really is to cut back on consumption. There's just so much of this stuff in the ground, and when it's gone, it's gone.

Economy Blah Blah

Well, it's the economy, stupid.

As we all pay the price for the subprime fiasco, I get angrier and angrier. Most of us didn't buy a house we couldn't afford. Most of us didn't lie about our income to get a house. Most of us didn't have jobs where we were incented to lie and cheat the system.

But, most of us will pay the price. We'll pay it in falling home values, and we'll pay it in higher taxes to bail out the idiots who did the things above. The media plays the subprime problem up to be a huge deal, and it is. But, subprime loans were not that prevalent. You'd think everyone had a subprime loan the way the media reports this. So, the overhyped problem actually becomes a problem for everyone.

How bad can the economy really be? Unemployment is around 5%, which is normal. Sure, gas prices are high, but they're driven to those levels by a whole lot of speculation in the market, and by the falling dollar.

The real economic crisis is the value of the dollar. We'd all be better off if we had taken our dollars and invested them in European real estate. What does that tell you?

The ever higher price of oil is driven by the falling dollar. On the world market, oil is pegged to the dollar. As the dollar declines, it takes more of them to buy oil, thus the price of oil goes up with the declining dollar.

The credit crisis is partially to blame for the falling dollar, as it causes doubt about our economic stability. But, more importantly, the cost of the war in Iraq is bankrupting this country. As our deficit increases, the dollar shrinks. That's how it works. We can't afford for this war to continue. We've spent nearly half a trillion dollars on this war so far. Guess who owes that bill? You and I.

It's time for the Iraqis to fend for themselves. It's time we wean ourselves off oil, and tell the Middle Eastern countries to peddle their precious oil somewhere else.

Then, watch the value of the dollar climb, the price of oil drop, and the economy start to hum again.

Stay Involved!

The turnout was great at the Colorado caucuses yesterday. Participatory democracy at it's best. Now, let's hope we have a real choice in November.

Both parties will be putting up candidates that propose change. But how much will really change?
Only Obama says he will pull out of Iraq quickly. Once fully advised by his Joint Chiefs, he'll probably change his mind, and explain it away to the populace. And, we'll cut him some slack because he's so "genuine". Clinton would probably stay in Iraq longer than McCain. What will change?

The economy chugs along under it's own power. And, does that better when there is little government interference. Read up on the 1970's when the feds tried to control the economy with wage and price freezes. It wasn't pretty, and probably was the biggest cause of the moribund economy in the 1980s. Most economists will tell the new President to give lip service to the economy and assure people that everything will be OK, but that's it, don't do anything. No government interference. What will change?

Immigration reform? Nobody wants to tackle that one. They understand the problem, and deep down would like to fix it, but don't want to alienate the Hispanic vote, which will put them in power. There will be no drastic changes in immigration reform. What will change?

The real focus needs to be on the Congressional elections, not the Presidential. Congress has a lower approval rating today than Bush. They spend our money like drunken sailors on pet projects. Remember, the Dems who promised change when they were elected in 2006? What's changed?

We need the hope of change, we want things to be better. But, we need to do more than go to caucuses. We need to repeatedly contact our Senators and Representative and show our displeasure until things start to really change.

Point is - if you want change, you need to stay involved. Not just this year, but constantly.

No to a National Primary

The concept of a national primary for selecting party candidates for the U.S. presidential election has been brought up from time to time. It's being discussed even more this year because of Super Tuesday, today, on which there are 24 states having primaries or caucuses.

We need to back away from a national primary concept, and even back away from a Super Tuesday concept. As voters, we need to see the candidates up close and personal to make our choices. Lumping several states, or worse - all states, onto one day prevents the candidates from getting to many of the states to woe voters.

We've seen this year where results have surprised pollsters. Those surprises then impact upcoming primaries. If we had all of the primaries, or most of them, on one day there is no room for a surprise candidate to shift voter opinion.

One big primary day will shift the media attention to the big prizes of the day, the big states. The smaller states will take second fiddle to the big states. Small state primaries should get as much attention as the big ones. Those votes count, too.

Let's reverse the trend toward Super Tuesdays and a national primary.